WeatherQuant

📖 How to Read This Dashboard

We pull forecasts from Open-Meteo

Every few minutes, WeatherQuant checks Open-Meteo — an open-source service aggregating multiple global weather models (GFS, ECMWF, and more) — for high/low temperature forecasts for each city.

We compare forecasts against Kalshi's market prices

Kalshi lists temperature markets with brackets like "72° to 73°." Each bracket has a price — that price represents what traders think the probability is. A bracket at 40¢ means traders estimate a 40% chance. Buy "Yes" at 40¢ and if that bracket wins, you get $1.00 back. If it loses, you lose your 40¢. Weather trading carries real risk — brackets can and do settle at $0.

The "← Forecast" tag shows where forecasts point

In the bracket table, the row tagged ← Forecast is the bracket the forecast temperature falls into.

Signals tell you if the market agrees or disagrees

✓ ALIGNED — Forecast and the market's top bracket match. No edge.

⚡ DIVERGENCE — Our forecast points to a different bracket than what the market is pricing. This is a signal to investigate further, not a guarantee. The market often has access to fresher data — always verify with current conditions before placing any trade.

Divergence ≠ guaranteed profit

Weather models can be wrong. Kalshi settles on the official NWS Daily Climate Report — not forecasts. A divergence means "worth investigating," not "free money." Never trade more than you can afford to lose.

📊 Track Record — Verified Accuracy

Every day, we snapshot our forecast before the market settles. The next morning, we check our prediction against Kalshi's actual settlement result — the same outcome that determines trader payouts. This data is logged automatically — no cherry-picking, no editing.

🔍 Why You Can Trust This Data

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Official Settlement Source

Kalshi markets settle based on the NWS Daily Climate Report — the same source our forecasts reference.

View Kalshi's rules →

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Open-Meteo Forecasts

Forecasts come from Open-Meteo, an open-source service aggregating multiple global weather models including GFS and ECMWF.

Open-Meteo →

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Real-Time Kalshi Prices

Market prices come directly from Kalshi's public API — the same data powering their own website.

Kalshi API docs →

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Fully Transparent

Every data source is public and verifiable. You can check any forecast or price against the original source yourself.

Disclaimer

WeatherQuant is not financial advice. The information provided is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing constitutes a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any event contracts or financial instruments.

Trading on Kalshi involves substantial risk of loss. You could lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeatherQuant is not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc. or the National Weather Service. Not insured by the FDIC or any government agency. Trade at your own risk.